 |  | Wednesday, 27 February 2008 |
Blackjack Common Mistakes
Standing on 12 when the dealer shows a 2 or 3 "Every time I hit my 12 when the dealer shows a 2 or 3 it seems I always get a 10 and bust so I stand instead and let the dealer take the card." That's the typical reason given by players who hate to hit a 12 against a 2 or 3 because they are afraid of drawing a 10 and busting. The player who sits in the anchor or third base position (last player to act before the dealer) also hates to hit because "they don't want to take the dealer's bust card."
It turns out that 12 is slightly different than most other "stiff" hands. Since you can only bust when you draw a 10, you've got a 9 out of 13 chance that you'll actually survive the hit. Also, with a 2 or 3 upcard the dealer is not as vulnerable as when he shows a 4, 5 or 6 upcard. But even if you make the right play and hit, you will still lose money in the long run because a hand of 12 against a dealer's 2 or 3 is a losing hand. However, if you hit you will end up saving in the neighborhood of 2-4% of the money wagered compared to standing. Therefore hitting is the right play when you have a 12 against a 2 or 3, not because it will win you more hands, but because it will cut your losses on a loser.
Not splitting 8's when the dealer shows a 9, 10, or ace "A 16 against a 9, 10, or ace is a loser. Why compound my losses by splitting and betting more?" Yes, getting dealt a 16 against a 10 is a bad hand. In fact it's one of the worst blackjack hands you'll face. But by splitting you can convert this bad hand into two better hands of 8 where you have a better chance of winning. Even so you will still lose money on both 8's in the long run but (and here's the catch) you'll lose less money compared to one hand of 16. How much? Figure you'll cut your losses by 5-12%, which is why splitting 8's against a dealer's 9, 10 and ace is the cheapest way out of a bad situation.
Always taking even money
"I always take even money because it's one of the few sure bets in the casino." When you take even money you are guaranteed a payoff equal to the amount of your original bet regardless of whether the dealer has a blackjack or not. So, if you bet $10, and take even money you will always win $10. However, you could be averaging a win of $10.40 (that's 4% more money) by simply declining the even money proposition. Here's why. About 9 times out of 13 the dealer will not have a blackjack and you will win $15 for the $10 initial wager. The other four times the dealer will have blackjack and you will push. Overall this works out to an average win of about $10.40 which is 40 cents more than the "sure" $10 win you'll get by taking even money. So even though always winning $10 is tempting this is one case where a bird in the hand is not worth more than two in a bush.
Always standing on ace, 7 (soft 18) when the dealer shows a 9, 10, or ace. "I never hit a good hand of 18." Most typical blackjack players believe that 18 is a good hand that should never be messed with. However if your 18 consists of an ace and a 7 and the dealer shows a 9, 10 or ace you have a negative expectation (which means in the long run you will lose more money then win). The reason is because the dealer will usually end up with a hand that totals greater than 18 and beat you. For example, when the dealer shows a 10 he will end up with a hand exceeding 18 about 52% of the time (and that doesn't include the times he will have a blackjack hand). Hitting is the right play because you will improve your hand enough times to compensate for the times you bust or end up with a total less than 18. In fact you'll gain about 8% by hitting when the dealer shows a 9 and about 4% when he shows a 10. Against a dealer ace it's a toss up but the edge is slightly in favor of hitting in multiple deck games and in single deck games where the dealer hits soft 17.
Stand on 11 against a dealer's 10
"I don't want to double down against a potential dealer's pat 20." Doubling down is in fact the recommended play even though it results in winning the hand less frequently then hitting. For example against a 10 you win 56% of the hands by hitting on average and only 54% by doubling. Even though your expectation of winning goes down slightly, doubling is the preferred strategy because when you do win you will win double the original wager. To put it even more succinctly, doubling increases your chances of losing more hands but increases your chances of winning more money.
Never surrendering
"Why should I give up without a fight?" More casinos offer surrender as a playing option. When a player surrenders he automatically gives up half his bet and forfeits the right to play out his hand. Most players won't surrender because they either don't understand what it means or because they don't want to take a defeatist position when they play blackjack. But guess what? It's OK to surrender against some hands because in the long run you will be SAVING yourself some bucks. Which hands? When you surrender you lose 50% of your wager therefore you should always surrender those hands where your expectation of losing is more than 50% of the wager. Those hands are 16 when the dealer shows a 9, 10 or ace (but not 8, 8) and 15 when he shows a 10.
Standing on a pair of 9's against a dealer's 9 upcard
"No way am I going to risk losing two bets against a strong dealers 9 upcard." Splitting 9's against a dealer's 9 upcard may seem like a suicidal play but in the long run it will save you money. Let's face it, when you stand on 18 you are in deep trouble against the 9 because the dealer will often end up with a pat 19. However, if you split, you will often push with 19 but sometimes do even better. Even though you will occasionally lose both splits, in the long run it's worth the risk because you will save about 8% of all the money wagered compared to standing.
Standing on 16 against a dealer's 7
"Every time I hit a 16 I break therefore I'll take my chances and stand." You will often bust when you hit 16 but this is offset by the fact that when you don't bust you have a decent shot at beating the dealer. Per dollar wagered, hitting will turn a 48-cents a hand loser into a 40-cent loser. You'll still be losing when you hit but the consolation is that you will be losing 8 cents less in the long run compared to standing.
Standing on ace, 6 against a dealer's 7
"I've got a chance to push so why risk losing by taking a hit." Playing for a push is a big mistake. In fact this hand presents one of those rare opportunities in blackjack when you can turn a losing hand into a winning hand. If you stand you will lose on average about a dime for every dollar wagered but if you hit you have the expectation to win 6 cents. That's a 16 cent overall gain per dollar bet, which makes hitting the preferred play.
Doubling down for less money
"I'm not quite sure if I should double or hit so I'll compromise and double for less." Nothing more sends chills down my spine when I see a player with a strong double down play double for less money. This is the same as shooting oneself in the foot. When you double down you'll win slightly less hands but you increase your net gain because of the extra money you bet when you double down. When you double down for less money you won't be getting the full advantage.
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